Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Darby Wind Speed Probabilities


492 
FOPZ15 KNHC 130838
PWSEP5

HURRICANE DARBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  16                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052022               
0900 UTC WED JUL 13 2022                                            

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DARBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H.                                        

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

15N 135W       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
15N 135W       50 88   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)
15N 135W       64 44   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)

15N 140W       34  1  14(15)  37(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)
15N 140W       50  X   2( 2)  12(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
15N 140W       64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

20N 140W       34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

15N 145W       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   9(16)   X(16)   X(16)

20N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

15N 150W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)

BUOY 51004     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)

15N 155W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI                                              




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