000 WTPZ43 KNHC 021440 TCDEP3 Hurricane Carlotta Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Since the previous advisory, Carlotta's structure on satellite imagery has improved, with a banding eye showing up on both infrared and visible frames. We have been also receiving helpful surface observations from Isla Clarion which earlier reported sustained winds of 47 kt with a gust of 71 kt and a minimum pressure of 986 mb as Carlotta passed by just to the north. These data, along with subjective and objective intensity estimates in the 65-77 kt range are the basis to increase the initial intensity to 70 kt, making Carlotta the first hurricane of the East Pacific season. Carlotta continues to move west-northwestward, estimated at 285/12-kt. This heading with a gradual slowdown is expected to continue for the next several days as the hurricane remains influenced by a large deep-layer ridge centered over the southwestern United States. The track guidance this cycle has not changed much other than another subtle shift north again, and the NHC track forecast was nudged again in that direction. The small hurricane has an opportunity to intensify further over the next day or so while it remains over warm ocean waters and low to moderate vertical wind shear. Similar to the previous advisory, the NHC forecast continues to show a peak intensity as a Category 2 hurricane in 24-36 hours. However beyond that time, sea-surface temperatures decrease under 26 C and continue to cool as the environmental moisture becomes increasingly dry and stable. Thus, weakening should begin in earnest after that time period, with the system becoming post-tropical as it loses its remaining convection by the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 18.6N 115.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 18.9N 117.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 19.3N 119.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 19.6N 121.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 19.9N 123.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 05/0000Z 20.3N 125.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 20.8N 127.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 21.6N 130.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 22.0N 134.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Papin
Hurricane Carlotta Forecast Discussion

02
Aug