Hurricane Carlotta Forecast Advisory

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 040237
TCMEP3

HURRICANE CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032024
0300 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 121.9W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..105NE  75SE  75SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 121.9W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 121.4W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.8N 123.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.4N 125.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.0N 127.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.3N 128.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.6N 130.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 21.7N 131.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 21.6N 134.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 121.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/BROWN