Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Bonnie Wind Speed Probabilities


000
FOPZ14 KNHC 070235
PWSEP4

HURRICANE BONNIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  38                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042022               
0300 UTC THU JUL 07 2022                                            

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H.                                        

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

ISLA SOCORRO   34  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

ISLA CLARION   34  8  84(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)
ISLA CLARION   50  1  40(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)
ISLA CLARION   64  X  10(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)

15N 115W       34  3   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

20N 115W       34  3   9(12)   2(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)

15N 120W       34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

20N 120W       34  X   3( 3)  27(30)  15(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)
20N 120W       50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
20N 120W       64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

20N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  25(33)   X(33)   X(33)
20N 125W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
20N 125W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

20N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   3(13)   X(13)

20N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI                                              



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