015 WTPZ34 KNHC 050841 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 400 AM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022 ...BONNIE CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 103.2W ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 103.2 West. Bonnie is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A west- northwestward to westward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the core of Bonnie is expected to move parallel to, but remain south of, the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength are possible through Thursday. A gradual weakening trend is expected to begin thereafter. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The outer rain bands of Bonnie could cause areas of heavy rainfall during the next day or so across portions of southern and southwestern Mexico. SURF: Swells generated by Bonnie will affect portions of the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven