000 WTPZ44 KNHC 050243 TCDEP4 Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022 Satellite imagery indicates that Bonnie continues to gradually strengthen this evening. A 0112 UTC SSMIS microwave pass reveals a compact inner core with an eye less than 10 nm. Upper-level outflow and convective banding appears to be fairly well-defined over the western and southern quadrants of the storm. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates range from 77 kt to 90 kt. The initial intensity has been increased to 90 kt in favor of the higher estimate, based on increasingly cold cloud tops near the core. Bonnie is expected to be in a relatively conducive environment for the next day or so. Based on current satellite trends, some additional strengthening seems likely. However, most of the intensity guidance does not show significant intensification beyond 24 hours, possibly due to the moderate vertical shear in the near-storm environment. By Wednesday, the wind shear is expected to decrease, but lower mid-level relative humidities and cooling sea surface temperatures should become a limiting factor. Therefore, the official forecast shows some additional short-term strengthening followed by gradual weakening. This forecast is slightly higher than the previous advisory for the first 24 hours. The storm has jogged a little to the north in the past few hours, but the longer-term motion is still west-northwestward at 14 kt. Bonnie is being steered by a deep-layer ridge to its north and north-northeast which is expected to build westward and keep the system on a general west-northward trajectory. The NHC track prediction is shifted slightly north of the previous one on account of the shorter-term northward shift, and is very near the consensus model forecast. Although the core of Bonnie is expected to remain well south of Mexico, rough surf and the potential for rip currents will continue to affect southwestern Mexico for another day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 14.5N 101.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 15.1N 103.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 15.5N 105.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 15.8N 108.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 16.1N 110.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 07/1200Z 16.5N 112.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 17.1N 115.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 09/0000Z 18.4N 120.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 10/0000Z 19.7N 126.8W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch/Bucci