Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Bonnie Forecast Discussion



000
WTPZ44 KNHC 080836
TCDEP4

Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number  43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042022
200 AM PDT Fri Jul 08 2022

Convection associated with Bonnie had decreased significantly in 
coverage and intensity since the last advisory, with the primary 
convection now confined to the northeastern quadrant.  Satellite 
intensity estimates have also decreased, and the initial intensity 
is reduced to a possibly generous 75 kt.  The cyclone has passed 
over the 26C isotherm, and it continues to move over colder water 
and into a drier air mass.  Thus, steady to rapid weakening is 
expected, with Bonnie weakening to a tropical storm in less than 24 
h and becoming a post-tropical low by 48 h.  The system is forecast 
to degenerate to a trough after 72 h, and the global model guidance 
suggests this could happen earlier than currently forecast.

The initial motion is 285/16 kt.  A low- to mid-level ridge to the 
north of Bonnie is expected to steer the cyclone or its remnants 
generally westward with a slight increase in forward speed until 
dissipation.  The new track forecast is an update of the previous 
forecast and lies in the middle of the tightly clustered track 
guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0900Z 18.2N 118.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  08/1800Z 18.7N 121.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  09/0600Z 19.2N 124.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  09/1800Z 19.5N 128.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  10/0600Z 19.7N 131.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 60H  10/1800Z 19.8N 135.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  11/0600Z 19.8N 138.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven



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