Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Blas Wind Speed Probabilities


234 
FOPZ12 KNHC 151455
PWSEP2

HURRICANE BLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022022               
1500 UTC WED JUN 15 2022                                            

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9
NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65   
KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.                                            

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

15N 105W       34  3  70(73)   4(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)
15N 105W       50  X  19(19)   6(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
15N 105W       64  X   8( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)

BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

MANZANILLO     34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

L CARDENAS     34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

15N 110W       34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   8(19)   1(20)   X(20)

20N 110W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  16(22)   2(24)   X(24)
20N 110W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  41(48)   3(51)   X(51)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  16(17)   1(18)   X(18)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  12(18)   3(21)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)

15N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)

20N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)   4(16)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PAPIN                                                    



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