Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Blas Wind Speed Probabilities


245 
FOPZ12 KNHC 170836
PWSEP2

HURRICANE BLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  13                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022022               
0900 UTC FRI JUN 17 2022                                            

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75   
KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H.                                            

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

15N 110W       34  3   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

20N 110W       34  4  13(17)   1(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)

ISLA SOCORRO   34  8  72(80)   3(83)   X(83)   1(84)   X(84)   X(84)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  1  19(20)   2(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

ISLA CLARION   34  X   4( 4)  12(16)  14(30)   8(38)   1(39)   X(39)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

15N 115W       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

20N 115W       34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   7(12)   5(17)   X(17)   X(17)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ROBERTS                                                  



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