000 WTPZ42 KNHC 172033 TCDEP2 Hurricane Blas Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022 300 PM MDT Fri Jun 17 2022 The strengthening observed this morning has come to an end, and Blas now seems to be on a weakening trend. Deep convection has become increasingly ragged and banding features appear a little less defined. Based on the degraded satellite appearance and the latest Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is nudged down to 75 kt. A partial ASCAT pass was helpful in locating the center and analyzing the 34- and 50-kt wind radii. During the past several hours, the hurricane has turned more to the left, and the latest initial motion estimate is westward at 12 kt. Blas is currently being steered by a strong mid-level ridge that is centered over the south-central U.S. A slower westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next several days as the system weakens and becomes increasingly steered by the lighter low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is nudged to the south of the previous one, partially based on the initial position and motion. Blas is about to cross the 26 degree C isotherm and it will be moving over progressively cooler waters during the next several days. In addition, the cyclone will be moving into an environment of increasingly more stable and dry air. These conditions should cause a steady weakening trend, and Blas will likely become a shallow post-tropical system in 2 to 3 days. The NHC intensity is just an update of the previous one and lies close to the HCCA and IVCN guidance. While Blas is moving farther away from the coast of Mexico, its associated swells are expected to continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula for another day or two. These conditions are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip currents in those areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 17.4N 109.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 17.8N 111.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 18.1N 112.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 18.3N 113.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 18.4N 114.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 20/0600Z 18.3N 115.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 18.2N 116.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 21/1800Z 18.6N 118.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/1800Z 19.0N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi