Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Blas Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ42 KNHC 172033
TCDEP2

Hurricane Blas Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022022
300 PM MDT Fri Jun 17 2022

The strengthening observed this morning has come to an end,
and Blas now seems to be on a weakening trend. Deep convection has
become increasingly ragged and banding features appear a little
less defined.  Based on the degraded satellite appearance and the
latest Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is nudged down to 75
kt. A partial ASCAT pass was helpful in locating the center and
analyzing the 34- and 50-kt wind radii.

During the past several hours, the hurricane has turned more to the
left, and the latest initial motion estimate is westward at 12
kt. Blas is currently being steered by a strong mid-level ridge
that is centered over the south-central U.S.  A slower westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next several days
as the system weakens and becomes increasingly steered by the
lighter low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is nudged to the
south of the previous one, partially based on the initial position
and motion.

Blas is about to cross the 26 degree C isotherm and it will be
moving over progressively cooler waters during the next several
days. In addition, the cyclone will be moving into an environment
of increasingly more stable and dry air. These conditions should
cause a steady weakening trend, and Blas will likely become a
shallow post-tropical system in 2 to 3 days. The NHC intensity is
just an update of the previous one and lies close to the HCCA and
IVCN guidance.

While Blas is moving farther away from the coast of Mexico, its
associated swells are expected to continue to affect portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and the southern Baja California
peninsula for another day or two.  These conditions are likely to
cause dangerous surf and rip currents in those areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 17.4N 109.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 17.8N 111.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  18/1800Z 18.1N 112.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  19/0600Z 18.3N 113.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  19/1800Z 18.4N 114.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  20/0600Z 18.3N 115.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  20/1800Z 18.2N 116.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  21/1800Z 18.6N 118.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  22/1800Z 19.0N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



Source link