Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Blas Forecast Discussion


396 
WTPZ42 KNHC 171445
TCDEP2

Hurricane Blas Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022022
900 AM MDT Fri Jun 17 2022

Blas has become a little better organized this morning.  Microwave
data from overnight showed an eye feature and numerous curved
bands, especially south of the center.  Since then, deep convection
has been increasing and has become a bit more symmetric around the
center.  The latest Dvorak estimates range from 77 to 90 kt, and
the initial intensity is nudged up to 80 kt based on that data.

The hurricane continues to move west-northwestward, or 295 degrees,
at 12 kt.  Blas is being steered by a strong mid-level ridge
centered over the south-central U.S.  The hurricane is expected to
slow down on Saturday and turn westward on Sunday as the system
weakens and becomes increasingly steered by the lighter low-level
flow.  This slow westward motion is forecast to continue through the
middle of next week.  The NHC track forecast is nudged to the north
of the previous one to be in better agreement with the latest
consensus aids.

Blas is currently in favorable conditions for strengthening, but
that is not expected to last much longer.  The hurricane should
cross the 26 degree C isotherm later today and move over
progressively cooler waters during the next several days.  In
addition, Blas will be moving into an environment of increasingly
more stable and dry air.  These conditions should promote a steady
weakening trend, and Blas will likely become a shallow post-tropical
system in a few days.  The NHC intensity is forecast is a touch
higher than the previous one, due to the slightly stronger initial
intensity.

While Blas is moving farther away from the coast of Mexico, its
associated swells are expected to continue to affect portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico for another day or so.  These swells
are expected to spread to parts of the southern Baja California
peninsula later today and continue through the weekend. These
conditions are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip currents in
those areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1500Z 17.8N 109.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  18/0000Z 18.2N 110.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  18/1200Z 18.6N 112.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  19/0000Z 18.8N 113.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  19/1200Z 18.9N 114.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  20/0000Z 18.8N 115.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  20/1200Z 18.7N 116.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  21/1200Z 18.8N 118.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  22/1200Z 19.0N 120.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi




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