Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Blas Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ42 KNHC 170837
TCDEP2

Hurricane Blas Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022022
300 AM MDT Fri Jun 17 2022

Conventional satellite imagery and earlier GMI and SSMI/S microwave
images indicated that the location of Blas' center was near the 
northern edge of the deep convective mass.  Evidently, the 
northeasterly shear persists and impinges on the north portion of 
the cloud pattern.  The subjective Dvorak satellite intensity 
estimates from TAFB and SAB remain unchanged, and the initial 
intensity is, once again, held at 75 kt.

Blas is expected to move over cooler oceanic sea surface
temperatures and into a high statically stable thermodynamic
surrounding environment during the next few days.  Gradual
weakening is then forecast through the remainder of the period.
The official intensity forecast has changed little from the previous 
one and sides with the HCCA and IVCN multi-model intensity 
forecasts.

The microwave passes showed Blas a little north of the previous 
advisory position, and the initial motion is estimated to be 
west-northwestward, or 295/11 kt.  Blas is embedded in the 
east-southeasterly steering flow generated by a mid-tropospheric 
ridge extending from northern Mexico into the eastern North Pacific 
ocean.  Some strengthening of the ridge should cause Blas to 
increase forward speed today.  A weaker, more vertically shallow 
cyclone will likely turn westward in the low-level easterlies by 
early next week.  Only minor along-track adjustments were made 
to the new track forecast, and a blend of the HCCA and TVCE were 
used as a basis.

While Blas is moving farther away from the coast of Mexico, its 
associated swells are affecting portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico and are expected to spread to parts of the
southern Baja California peninsula later today. These swells are
likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions in those
areas through the weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0900Z 17.0N 107.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  17/1800Z 17.6N 109.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  18/0600Z 18.1N 111.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  18/1800Z 18.4N 112.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  19/0600Z 18.5N 113.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  19/1800Z 18.4N 114.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  20/0600Z 18.3N 115.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  21/0600Z 18.4N 118.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  22/0600Z 18.4N 119.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts



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