Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Blas Forecast Advisory


000
WTPZ22 KNHC 151453
TCMEP2

HURRICANE BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022022
1500 UTC WED JUN 15 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 102.8W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT.......  0NE   0SE  10SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 102.8W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 102.7W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.3N 103.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.8N 104.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.5N 106.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.1N 108.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.7N 110.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.2N 111.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE   0SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 18.8N 114.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 19.0N 116.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 102.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN




Source link