Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Blas Forecast Advisory


000
WTPZ22 KNHC 162046
TCMEP2

HURRICANE BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022022
2100 UTC THU JUN 16 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 105.6W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  980 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  15SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT.......110NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE  90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 105.6W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 105.1W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.9N 107.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.8N 109.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.3N 111.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  70SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.7N 113.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 19.0N 114.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.8N 115.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 18.3N 117.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 18.2N 119.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 105.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/BROWN




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