Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Blas Forecast Advisory


000
WTPZ22 KNHC 161436
TCMEP2

HURRICANE BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022022
1500 UTC THU JUN 16 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 104.8W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE  15SE  15SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT.......110NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 104.8W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 104.3W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.5N 106.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  15SE  15SW  10NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  80SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.3N 108.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 18.0N 110.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.4N 112.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.8N 113.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 19.0N 114.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 18.7N 116.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 18.5N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 104.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




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