Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Blas Forecast Advisory


000
WTPZ22 KNHC 160232
TCMEP2

HURRICANE BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022022
0300 UTC THU JUN 16 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 103.7W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT.......  0NE  15SE  15SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 103.7W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 103.3W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.8N 104.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  80SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.4N 106.3W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.1N 108.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.7N 110.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.2N 111.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.6N 113.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 18.8N 115.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 18.3N 116.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 103.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI




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