Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Agatha Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ41 KNHC 291442
TCDEP1

Hurricane Agatha Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012022
1000 AM CDT Sun May 29 2022

Agatha is rapidly intensifying. Recent conventional and microwave 
satellite data have shown that the storm's convective structure has 
significantly improved overnight and this morning.  Overnight 
microwave imagery indicated that a low to mid-level eye had formed 
and more recent 1109 and 1206 UTC SSMIS overpasses revealed that 
the inner-core structure has continued to improve.  Subjective 
Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB were 77 and 65 kt, 
respectively, while objective Dvorak estimates have increased to 
near 75 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity has been set 
at 75 kt.  

The environment ahead of Agatha is expected to remain favorable 
for further intensification.  The hurricane is currently over SSTs 
of around 30C, within low shear, and embedded in a moist low- to 
mid-level atmosphere.  As a result, continued steady to rapid 
strengthening is predicted during the next 12-24 hours after which 
time the hurricane's intensity is likely to level off due to a 
possible eyewall cycle and/or interaction with land. The updated 
NHC intensity forecast is notably higher than the previous advisory 
due to the higher initial intensity and likelihood of continued 
rapid strengthening today. The new intensity forecast brings Agatha 
to near major hurricane strength before landfall in southern Mexico 
and is in best agreement with the SHIPS model.  After landfall 
Agatha should rapidly weaken as it moves over the mountains terrain 
of southern Mexico.

Agatha has been meandering this morning, but the longer term initial 
motion estimate is 345/2 kt. The hurricane should turn northward 
this afternoon, and then begin to move on a faster northeastward 
motion tonight and Monday as it becomes embedded in southwesterly 
flow between a mid- to upper-level trough over northern Mexico and a 
mid- to upper-level ridge to its east.  On the foreast track, Agatha 
is expected to approach the coast of southern Mexico tonight, and 
move onshore on Monday.  The latest track guidance is once again 
slower than before, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted 
accordingly.  The new NHC track remains near the middle of the 
guidance envelope, close to the various consensus aids. 


Key Messages:

1. Dangerous coastal flooding from storm surge accompanied by large
and destructive waves is expected near and the east of where Agatha
makes landfall.

2. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in portions 
of the hurricane warning area in southern Mexico on Monday, with 
tropical storm conditions beginning there tonight or early Monday.  
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning 
area on Monday.

3. Heavy rains associated with Agatha will develop over portions of
southern Mexico later today and continue through Tuesday. This will
pose a threat of potentially life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/1500Z 14.1N  99.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 14.4N  98.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  30/1200Z 14.9N  98.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  31/0000Z 15.7N  96.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  31/1200Z 16.6N  95.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 60H  01/0000Z 17.4N  95.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 72H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown



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