000 WTPZ41 KNHC 291442 TCDEP1 Hurricane Agatha Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022 1000 AM CDT Sun May 29 2022 Agatha is rapidly intensifying. Recent conventional and microwave satellite data have shown that the storm's convective structure has significantly improved overnight and this morning. Overnight microwave imagery indicated that a low to mid-level eye had formed and more recent 1109 and 1206 UTC SSMIS overpasses revealed that the inner-core structure has continued to improve. Subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB were 77 and 65 kt, respectively, while objective Dvorak estimates have increased to near 75 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity has been set at 75 kt. The environment ahead of Agatha is expected to remain favorable for further intensification. The hurricane is currently over SSTs of around 30C, within low shear, and embedded in a moist low- to mid-level atmosphere. As a result, continued steady to rapid strengthening is predicted during the next 12-24 hours after which time the hurricane's intensity is likely to level off due to a possible eyewall cycle and/or interaction with land. The updated NHC intensity forecast is notably higher than the previous advisory due to the higher initial intensity and likelihood of continued rapid strengthening today. The new intensity forecast brings Agatha to near major hurricane strength before landfall in southern Mexico and is in best agreement with the SHIPS model. After landfall Agatha should rapidly weaken as it moves over the mountains terrain of southern Mexico. Agatha has been meandering this morning, but the longer term initial motion estimate is 345/2 kt. The hurricane should turn northward this afternoon, and then begin to move on a faster northeastward motion tonight and Monday as it becomes embedded in southwesterly flow between a mid- to upper-level trough over northern Mexico and a mid- to upper-level ridge to its east. On the foreast track, Agatha is expected to approach the coast of southern Mexico tonight, and move onshore on Monday. The latest track guidance is once again slower than before, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly. The new NHC track remains near the middle of the guidance envelope, close to the various consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Dangerous coastal flooding from storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves is expected near and the east of where Agatha makes landfall. 2. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in portions of the hurricane warning area in southern Mexico on Monday, with tropical storm conditions beginning there tonight or early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area on Monday. 3. Heavy rains associated with Agatha will develop over portions of southern Mexico later today and continue through Tuesday. This will pose a threat of potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 14.1N 99.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 14.4N 98.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 14.9N 98.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 15.7N 96.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 31/1200Z 16.6N 95.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 60H 01/0000Z 17.4N 95.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown