Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Agatha Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ41 KNHC 302047
TCDEP1

Hurricane Agatha Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012022
400 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022

Satellite imagery indicates that Agatha has made landfall along the 
coast of southern Mexico just west of Puerto Angel within the past 
half-hour.  The landfall intensity is estimated to have been 90 kt, 
which is based on several SFMR wind measurements from an Air Force 
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft around midday and subjective and 
objective Dvorak intensity estimates.  It is worth noting that the 
minimum pressure decreased several millibars between the aircraft 
center passes, which coincided with the eye becoming more apparent 
in visible satellite imagery.  These data along with a 1747 UTC GMI 
microwave pass suggest Agatha may have completed an eyewall 
replacement cycle around that time. The initial intensity remains 90 
kt for this advisory, but rapid weakening should commence very soon 
as the core of the hurricane interacts with the mountainous terrain 
of southern Mexico.  Agatha is forecast to dissipate over 
southeastern Mexico by late Tuesday.  The global models continue to 
suggest that the mid-level remnants will merge with a broad low 
pressure system near the Yucatan peninsula, and there is some 
potential for development in the northwestern Caribbean Sea or 
southern Gulf of Mexico later this week.

Agatha remains on a northeastward heading at about 7 kt.  This
general motion should continue until dissipation occurs on Tuesday.
The updated NHC track forecast is once again near the middle of the
tightly clustered guidance envelope.

Key Messages:

1. Extremely dangerous coastal flooding from storm surge,
accompanied by large and destructive waves, will continue through 
this evening near and to the east of where Agatha made landfall.

2. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds will continue in portions
of the hurricane warning area in Oaxaca, Mexico, this evening.  
Tropical storm conditions will spread eastward within the warning 
area through tonight.

3. Heavy rains associated with Agatha will continue over portions of
southern Mexico through Tuesday.  This will pose a threat of
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/2100Z 15.7N  96.6W   90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
 12H  31/0600Z 16.4N  95.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 24H  31/1800Z 17.3N  94.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  01/0600Z 18.0N  93.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown



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