000 WTPZ41 KNHC 302047 TCDEP1 Hurricane Agatha Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022 400 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022 Satellite imagery indicates that Agatha has made landfall along the coast of southern Mexico just west of Puerto Angel within the past half-hour. The landfall intensity is estimated to have been 90 kt, which is based on several SFMR wind measurements from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft around midday and subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates. It is worth noting that the minimum pressure decreased several millibars between the aircraft center passes, which coincided with the eye becoming more apparent in visible satellite imagery. These data along with a 1747 UTC GMI microwave pass suggest Agatha may have completed an eyewall replacement cycle around that time. The initial intensity remains 90 kt for this advisory, but rapid weakening should commence very soon as the core of the hurricane interacts with the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico. Agatha is forecast to dissipate over southeastern Mexico by late Tuesday. The global models continue to suggest that the mid-level remnants will merge with a broad low pressure system near the Yucatan peninsula, and there is some potential for development in the northwestern Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico later this week. Agatha remains on a northeastward heading at about 7 kt. This general motion should continue until dissipation occurs on Tuesday. The updated NHC track forecast is once again near the middle of the tightly clustered guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Extremely dangerous coastal flooding from storm surge, accompanied by large and destructive waves, will continue through this evening near and to the east of where Agatha made landfall. 2. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds will continue in portions of the hurricane warning area in Oaxaca, Mexico, this evening. Tropical storm conditions will spread eastward within the warning area through tonight. 3. Heavy rains associated with Agatha will continue over portions of southern Mexico through Tuesday. This will pose a threat of life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 15.7N 96.6W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND 12H 31/0600Z 16.4N 95.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 24H 31/1800Z 17.3N 94.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 01/0600Z 18.0N 93.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown