Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Agatha Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ41 KNHC 300235
TCDEP1

Hurricane Agatha Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012022
1000 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

It seems like the rapid intensification of Agatha has finally 
leveled off.  Satellite images show that while the hurricane 
continues to have strong convection near the center, there is no 
real sign of an eye emerging.  In addition, recent microwave data 
has degraded some since this afternoon, although the small inner 
core is not easily resolved on most instruments.  The 00Z TAFB/SAB 
satellite classifications haven't changed from earlier, so the 
initial wind speed will stay 95 kt on this advisory.  Agatha still 
has about a day to intensify over very warm waters with light 
shear, and the hurricane should become a major hurricane before 
landfall late Monday.  Similar to last night, guidance has come 
down from the last cycle, but I'm not falling for it this time.  
The new forecast is primarily based on the last forecast and the 
overall conducive environment for strengthening up until landfall.

Agatha is finally moving to the northeast, estimated at 055/5 kt.  
The hurricane should continue moving to the northeast or 
east-northeast at a little faster rate as it becomes embedded in 
low- to mid-level southwesterly flow.  Model guidance has shifted 
slightly eastward since this afternoon, perhaps since the now 
vertically deeper hurricane could feel the upper-level westerlies 
more.  Regardless, almost all of the models show Agatha near the 
southern coast of the Mexican state of Oaxaca in about 24 hours, and 
the new forecast is nudged eastward to come into line with the 
latest consensus trackers.  After landfall, rapid weakening is 
forecast and Agatha is expected to dissipate over the high terrain 
of southern Mexico late Tuesday.


Key Messages:

1. Extremely dangerous coastal flooding from storm surge
accompanied by large and destructive waves is expected near and the
east of where Agatha makes landfall.

2. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in portions
of the hurricane warning area in southern Mexico on Monday, with
tropical storm conditions beginning there overnight or early Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area on Monday.

3. Heavy rains associated with Agatha over portions of southern 
Mexico will continue through Tuesday. This rainfall will pose a 
threat of potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0300Z 14.5N  98.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z 14.9N  97.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  31/0000Z 15.6N  96.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  31/1200Z 16.7N  95.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 48H  01/0000Z 17.6N  94.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 60H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake



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