Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Agatha Forecast Discussion


027 
WTPZ41 KNHC 292039
TCDEP1

Hurricane Agatha Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012022
400 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

Satellite images indicate that Agatha continues to intensify at a
rapid pace.  The hurricane has a compact inner core and an eye
feature has recently become apparent in geostationary satellite
data.  Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were both 5.0/90 kt at
18Z.  The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are currently investigating
Agatha and so far found maximum flight-level winds of 107 kt at 700
mb and maximum SFMR winds of about 90 kt.  Based on that data, the
initial intensity is increased to 95 kt, which is just below major
hurricane strength, and the minimum pressure is estimated to be 964 
mb.

The hurricane has not moved much during the past several hours, with
the latest initial motion estimated to be a slow and erratic 045/1
kt.  The models agree that a more steady northeastward motion should
commence very soon, and that motion is expected to bring the core of
Agatha to the coast of southern Mexico Monday afternoon or evening.
The NHC track forecast has been shifted a little to the east of the
previous one based on the more eastward initial position.

Agatha has strengthened at an impressive rate of 45 kt over the past
24 hours, and it likely will intensify a little more as it is
expected to remain in generally favorable conditions until it
reaches the coast of Mexico.  However, there is a chance of an
eyewall replacement cycle that could cause the intensity of the
hurricane to fluctuate.  After landfall, rapid weakening is forecast
and Agatha is expected to dissipate over the rugged terrain of
southern Mexico on Tuesday.  The NHC intensity forecast is similar
to the previous one and follows the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids
through landfall.

Key Messages:

1. Extremely dangerous coastal flooding from storm surge 
accompanied by large and destructive waves is expected near and the 
east of where Agatha makes landfall.

2. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in portions
of the hurricane warning area in southern Mexico on Monday, with
tropical storm conditions beginning there tonight or early Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area on Monday.

3. Heavy rains associated with Agatha will develop over portions of
southern Mexico later today and continue through Tuesday. This will
pose a threat of potentially life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/2100Z 14.1N  98.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 14.5N  98.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  30/1800Z 15.2N  97.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  31/0600Z 16.0N  96.1W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND
 48H  31/1800Z 17.1N  95.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 60H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi




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