GMZ005-141430-
Synopsis for Keys coastal waters from Ocean Reef to Dry Tortugas
1029 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure is centered over the Southeast U.S. and the
northern Gulf. An Atlantic ridge continues to weaken and retreat
east towards the central Atlantic. In between these two features
lies a weak cold front which is in the process of stalling along
and parallel or just south of the Florida Keys. This will promote
gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes over the next
several days. There will be chances for showers and a few thunderstorms
over the next few days as this weak and diffuse front remains in
the area. Late in the week, a strong cold front could develop and
move towards the Florida Keys by the weekend. Currently, there are
low chances that the front will make it to the Florida Keys
waters but there still remains some uncertainty in the forecast
regarding how far south the frontal boundary is able to reach.
The Approximate Shoreward Edge of the Gulf Stream as of October
9, 2026...
53 NM south-southeast of Dry Tortugas Light, on Loggerhead Key
33 NM south-southeast of Cosgrove Shoal Light, off the Marquesas Keys
24 NM south-southeast of Sand Key Light, off Key West
19 NM south-southeast of Looe Key, off Big Pine Key
13 NM south-southeast of Sombrero Key Light, off Marathon
5 NM south-southeast of Alligator Reef Light, off Islamorada
2 NM east of Molasses Reef Light, off Key Largo
2 NM east of Carysfort Reef Light, off Ocean Reef
Gulf Stream Information Courtesy of the Naval Oceanographic
Office.
$$
GMZ042>044-141430-
Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out to the reef-
Hawk Channel from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile Bridge out
to the reef-
Hawk Channel from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon Shoal
out to the reef-
1029 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026
OVERNIGHT
Northeast to east winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to
3 feet. Nearshore waters a light to moderate chop. A chance of
showers and thunderstorms.
WEDNESDAY
Northeast to east winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to
3 feet. Nearshore waters a light to moderate chop. A chance of
showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Nearshore waters a light to moderate chop. A chance of showers
with a slight chance of thunderstorms.
THURSDAY
East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Nearshore waters a light to moderate chop. A chance of showers
with a slight chance of thunderstorms.
THURSDAY NIGHT
East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Nearshore waters a light to moderate chop. A chance of showers
with a slight chance of thunderstorms.
FRIDAY
East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Nearshore
waters smooth to a light chop. A chance of showers with a slight
chance of thunderstorms.
FRIDAY NIGHT
Northeast to east winds near 5 knots. Seas around
1 foot. Nearshore waters smooth. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms.
SATURDAY
Northeast to east winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to
10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet, building to around 2 feet.
Nearshore waters smooth to a light chop, becoming a light to
moderate chop. Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms.
SATURDAY NIGHT
Northeast to east winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas
2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters choppy. A chance of thunderstorms.
Showers.
SUNDAY
Northeast to east winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 2 to
4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Nearshore waters very rough. A
chance of thunderstorms. Showers.
SUNDAY NIGHT
Northeast to east winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to
5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Nearshore waters very rough.
Showers with a chance of thunderstorms.
$$
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