Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2452

   Mesoscale Discussion 2452
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0154 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

   Areas affected...far southeast Pennsylvania into New Jersey

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 705...

   Valid 121954Z - 122200Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 705 continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat of hail and perhaps a tornado will persist as
   storms move east across the Delaware River.

   DISCUSSION...A line of storms with a tail-end supercell is expected
   to persist into central NJ where the air mass remains sufficiently
   unstable. Temperatures have warmed, with some mixing of the
   dewpoints into lower 50s F, down from mid 50s F earlier. Low-level
   shear per TPHL VWP shows around 100 m2/s2 0-1 SRH, also down from
   earlier today. Cold temperatures aloft will continue to support
   hail. Tornado potential is more conditional given current trends,
   but storms intersecting the east-west front over northern NJ may
   experience some enhanced rotation potential there. VWPs to the south
   from KDOX and KLWX show gradually veering of the low-level winds,
   with additional storm formation south of the existing activity
   becoming less likely as drying moves in the the west.

   ..Jewell.. 11/12/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...

   LAT...LON   39787540 40207528 40437529 40537476 40577441 40477403
               40347385 39727404 39627462 39677520 39787540 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN