Mesoscale Discussion 2451
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1017 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026
Areas affected...southeast Pennsylvania into central New
Jersey...far northern Delaware and northeastern Maryland
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 121617Z - 121845Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Storms are expected to develop after 17Z from far
southeast Pennsylvania into extreme northeast Maryland and northern
Delaware, moving into central New Jersey during the afternoon. A few
severe storms producing brief tornadoes and hail are anticipated.
DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a surface low over northern VA,
and a warm front extending northeastward into central NJ. On the
warm side, mid 50s F dewpoints are present, with temperatures rising
into the lower 60s F.
Visible satellite shows areas of heating upstream into parts of MD
and DE, with mid 60s F temperatures possible. Meanwhile, area VWPs
indicate moderate southeast to south winds just above the surface.
These factors should aid a degree of northward movement/mixing of
this boundary.
Several models indicate cells will develop around 17Z, increasing
into the early afternoon as they travel northeastward toward the
warm front. Forecast soundings support the notion of supercells,
with very cold temperatures aloft and veering winds with height.
Given such cool temperatures aloft, little if any heating will be
necessary to support a severe risk, assuming dewpoints can rise into
the 54-56 F range.
..Jewell.. 11/12/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON 39597412 39377519 39277596 39557626 39857626 40187608
40437544 40487394 40317389 39777401 39597412
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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