Mesoscale Discussion 2450 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026 Areas affected...portions of southwestern Indiana into far northwestern Kentucky Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 704... Valid 112252Z - 120015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 704 continues. SUMMARY...A risk for primarily large hail and damaging wind gusts continues across portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 704. The best chance for a brief tornado may also exist over the next hour or so. DISCUSSION...Convective coverage/intensity have gradually increased over the past couple of hours as large-scale forcing for ascent has increasingly overlapped modestly better low-level moisture across portions of the mid-Ohio River Valley. Thus far, convective mode has been a mix of supercells and linear segments, with recent reports of 1" and 1.75" hail noted in Indiana. Weak instability (500-1000 J/kg), modest mid-level lapse rates of 6.5-7.0 C/km, and cold temperatures aloft (around -18 to -20 C) will continue to favor a threat for large hail, especially with any persistent, discrete supercells. Damaging wind gusts also remain possible, particularly with ongoing/developing linear segments. The best chance for a brief tornado may also exist over the next hour or so prior to the onset of stronger nocturnal cooling and before the surface cold front begins to outrun the narrow, low-level moisture plume. The greatest potential is likely to exist with any discrete supercell located in close proximity to the surface low noted over western Indiana. Marginal low-level moisture (upper 40s to mid 50s F surface dewpoints) and generally veered, southwesterly surface winds suggest any tornado threat is likely to remain brief/localized, however. ..Chalmers.. 11/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX... LAT...LON 38118794 39458742 39848693 39988673 40058629 39998600 39568585 38898592 38248635 37948664 37818697 37818744 37938785 38118794 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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