Issued at 500 PM HST Sat Nov 07 2026
000 WTPA44 PHFO 080233 TCDCP4 Tropical Storm Pena Discussion Number 6 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP042026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM HST Sat Nov 07 2026 Pena's convective structure has changed little during the past few hours. Satellite imagery reveals that the low-level center remains obscured beneath a central dense overcast (CDO), with deep convection displaced primarily to the northeast likely due to light-to-moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear. However, there are subtle signs of improved organization, as curved banding features have become more evident this cycle. A 2339 UTC AMSR3 microwave pass captured this banding well, and the latest D-MINT intensity estimate based on this data was 48 kt. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from HFO was T3.5/55 kt, whereas objective estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 42 to 48 kt. Based on a blend of these data, the initial intensity is increased to 50 kt. The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/8 kt. Pena is expected to maintain a general westward track over the next couple of days while steered by a broad low- to mid-level ridge anchored to its north. Track guidance remains in excellent agreement through 60 to 72 h. Thereafter, an approaching upper-level shortwave trough should induce a gradual turn toward the northwest along with a slight increase in forward speed, causing larger cross-track spread among the guidance solutions at longer forecast ranges. The updated NHC track forecast is virtually identical to the previous advisory through 60 h, then nudged slightly southward thereafter to lie between the prior forecast and the latest HCCA guidance. The intensity forecast for Pena remains particularly challenging. Statistical SHIPS guidance suggests that Pena will steadily intensify throughout the forecast period, supported by warm SSTs and light vertical wind shear. However, mid-level dry air entrainment and marginal upper-level outflow appear to be affecting the cyclone, likely limiting significant intensification in the near term. This dilemma is reflected in the guidance, where large spread between the dynamical and statistical models results in lower-than-average forecast confidence. As a result, the new NHC intensity forecast closely mirrors the prior advisory, remaining near the consensus aids and along the upper edge of the multi-model envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 11.4N 154.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 11.6N 155.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 11.6N 157.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 11.5N 159.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 11.5N 161.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 10/1200Z 11.6N 163.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 11.8N 166.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 12.6N 172.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 14.0N 178.9W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Pierce/Reinhart
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