Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2447

   Mesoscale Discussion 2447
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1101 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2026

   Areas affected...portions of eastern North Carolina into extreme
   southeastern Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 061701Z - 061900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for a few severe gusts and perhaps a tornado or
   two may increase as storms attempt to intensify through the early to
   mid afternoon hours. Convective trends are being monitored for the
   need of a WW issuance.

   DISCUSSION...A primary confluence band of showers with embedded
   convective cells (evident via MRMS mosaic radar imagery and NLDN
   lightning data) continues to progress eastward across the Carolina
   Piedmont in tandem with modest surface troughing and the eastward
   advancement of an upper trough. Ahead of this band of precipitation,
   surface temperatures have been slow to warm (e.g. mid 70s F) given
   appreciable cloud cover. Despite modest boundary-layer mixing
   beneath mediocre mid-level lapse rates (6-6.5 C/km per 16Z
   mesoanalysis), the boundary layer is quickly moistening. Mid 60s to
   near 70 F surface dewpoints are advecting northward into central NC,
   boosting MLCAPE to 1000 J/kg. Furthermore, stronger southwesterly
   500 mb flow atop 25 kts of 850 mb south-southwesterlies is yielding
   up to 45 kts of effective bulk shear, which will support some
   organization of transient supercells and short line segments.
   Regional VADs show relatively short and mainly straight hodographs,
   suggesting that the primary threat with these storms will be
   damaging gusts, though a tornado is still possible. 

   Thunderstorms are gradually intensifying, and the latest
   high-resolution guidance suggests that thunderstorms may appreciably
   strengthen in the 18-20Z period. Given the gradual intensification
   trends, conditions will continue to be monitored for the need of a
   WW issuance.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 11/06/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

   LAT...LON   34167777 34057827 34097867 34257889 34587901 35827812
               36457742 36867683 36867650 36557605 36057595 35287628
               34637703 34167777 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN