Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2443

   Mesoscale Discussion 2443
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1242 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2026

   Areas affected...parts of northern Georgia into adjacent Upstate
   South Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 041842Z - 042115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Evolving supercell structures with potential to produce a
   tornado or two appear possible across the Piedmont of northeastern
   Georgia and adjacent Upstate South Carolina by 4-6 PM EST.  It is
   still not certain that this will require a severe weather watch, but
   trends are being monitored.

   DISCUSSION...A lingering belt of moderate to strong southeasterly to
   southerly low-level flow (around 850 mb) across much of western and
   northern Georgia is in the process of weakening and shifting
   north-northeastward based on latest Rapid Refresh output.  By
   20-22Z, strongest flow is forecast to become confined to the
   Piedmont into higher terrain of northeastern Georgia and adjacent
   Upstate South Carolina, but may still include speeds on the order of
   30-35+ kt supporting sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs,
   within an associated low-level warm advection zone.

   Rapid 2-hourly surface pressure falls in excess of 2 mb are already
   evident in 17Z surface observation across much of the Georgia into
   South Carolina Piedmont, where associated ageostrophic accelerations
   may contribute to increasing low-level convergence and further
   moistening of boundary-layer dew points through the mid/upper 60s F.
   Despite generally weak lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, coupled
   with some boundary warming within breaks in the overcast,
   near-surface destabilization may support intensifying convective
   development, as negatively-tilted mid-level troughing slowly spreads
   into/across the southern Appalachians.  This may include a few
   evolving supercell structures with potential to produce a couple of
   tornadoes.  However, this threat still appears conditioned on the
   evolution of near-surface thermoynamic profiles becoming conducive
   to at least weak surface-based buoyancy.

   ..Kerr/Hart.. 11/04/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GSP...FFC...

   LAT...LON   33878407 34448371 34858283 34218257 33648317 33588385
               33878407 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH