Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2442

   Mesoscale Discussion 2442
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0440 PM CST Tue Nov 03 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 032240Z - 040115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...The potential for a brief/weak tornado or two and locally
   damaging wind gusts will continue spreading eastward over the next
   few hours. The overall severe threat is expected to remain fairly
   marginal and localized.

   DISCUSSION...A NNE/SSW-oriented broken line of thunderstorms is
   tracking eastward across parts of LA into southern AR, with
   additional shallow cellular storms ahead of the line. This activity
   will continue tracking eastward across the Lower MS Valley over the
   next few hours -- in tandem with a robust midlevel trough and
   related cold front. The LCH 18Z sounding sampled a moist air mass
   ahead of these storms, with lower 70s dewpoints in LA, and
   middle/upper 60s dewpoints extending northward into the Mid-South.
   Despite poor lapse rates, the associated weak surface-based buoyancy
   and small clockwise-curved low-level hodographs (sampled by the POE
   VWP) will continue to support embedded rotating cells in the line,
   and shallow/transient rotating showers/storms immediately ahead of
   the line. A brief/weak tornado or two and locally damaging gusts
   will remain possible with this activity, however, with the core of
   the low-level jet shifting northward and aforementioned weak
   buoyancy, the overall severe threat is expected to remain fairly
   marginal and localized.

   ..Weinman/Gleason.. 11/03/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   30789346 32099270 33269218 34339145 35179094 35229061
               35169025 34938988 34608973 34128979 33619003 32649064
               30929213 30659259 30569305 30599344 30789346 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH