Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2441

   Mesoscale Discussion 2441
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1141 AM CST Tue Nov 03 2026

   Areas affected...east Texas...northwest Louisiana...and far southern
   Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 031741Z - 031915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A weak tornado threat may continue across northwest
   Louisiana and vicinity.

   DISCUSSION...A few weak supercells have evolved out of the cluster
   of storms this morning across east Texas and northwest Louisiana.
   These storms are north of the greater instability, but are within a
   zone of more favorable low-level shear. These storms have been
   sufficiently strong for a few radar confirmed tornadoes, despite
   very weak (<20 knot) vRot based on KSHV SRV data. Therefore, while
   the overall environment seems to limit the overall ability for
   strong low-level mesoscyclones to develop, there does seem to be
   sufficient low-level shear and stretching to produce tornadoes with
   any supercells that develop. 

   Expect additional supercell development this afternoon as
   heating/destabilization increases. However, the low-level jet is
   expected to weaken through the afternoon which may bring an end to
   the seemingly perfect balance for a few tornado producing storms
   this morning. Due to this uncertainty in the continuation of the
   threat, a tornado watch is not expected. However, if this trend of
   storms being efficient tornado producers continues, a watch may be
   needed.

   ..Bentley/Marsh.. 11/03/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   31909453 32579414 33429370 33529322 33309256 32779246
               32149269 31419308 31109376 31329443 31529465 31909453 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH