Mesoscale Discussion 2440 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Tue Nov 03 2026 Areas affected...Eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas and the Texarkana region Concerning...Tornado Watch 703... Valid 030645Z - 030845Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 703 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for severe winds, and perhaps a brief tornado, will continue across far eastern Oklahoma and into far western Arkansas for the next hour or so. Thunderstorms moving into the greater Texarkana region may pose an occasional severe threat through the early morning hours, but additional watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Latest MRMS imagery depicts the most intense convection traversing eastern Oklahoma with strong velocities noted off the KFSM radar. This compact line segment will migrate across the northern fringe of the low-level moisture plume/buoyancy axis over the next couple of hours, and given its favorable orientation with the deep-layer shear vector and strong low-level SRH noted in the KFSM VWP, will continue to pose a threat for severe wind, and perhaps a brief tornado, as it approaches the Fort Smith, AR area. Gradual weakening of this segment is anticipated after roughly 08 UTC as it moves further into AR and into a more stable air mass. Further south, a loosely organized convective band moving across the northern Dallas/Fort-Worth metro will continue to push east/northeast towards the greater Texarkana region over the next several hours. Downstream of this segment, richer low-level moisture (dewpoints in the 70s) continues to support MLCAPE values upwards of 1000 J/kg within a moderately sheared environment (per regional VWPs). The long residence time within this warm sector may support occasional intensification of cells/segments within the line that could pose a threat for isolated severe gusts over the next several hours. However, poor alignment with the deep-layer shear vector coupled with increasing displacement from the primary upper-level forcing for ascent should act to modulate overall storm organization and intensity. These concerns limit confidence in the need for additional watch issuance at this time. ..Moore.. 11/03/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33089698 34289588 35249535 35629492 35739442 35739406 35669389 35499377 35159374 33729387 33409403 33119438 32959478 32879543 32839596 32879632 32929662 33089698 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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