Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2435

   Mesoscale Discussion 2435
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0552 PM CST Mon Nov 02 2026

   Areas affected...North-central Oklahoma into south-central/southeast
   Kansas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 701...

   Valid 022352Z - 030115Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 701 continues.

   SUMMARY...Monitoring portions of north-central Oklahoma into
   south-central/southeast Kansas for some increase in severe potential
   during the next couple of hours -- within Tornado Watch #701.
   Primary concerns are damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes.

   DISCUSSION...A north/south-oriented line of thunderstorms is
   tracking east-northeastward across much of central OK into far
   south-central KS. In the near-term, an embedded cluster in the
   northern portion of the line has shown signs of recent
   intensification and will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and
   possibly sporadic hail over north-central OK. 

   High-resolution guidance suggests that a mesoscale low feature may
   evolve eastward along the KS/OK border in response to strengthening
   large-scale forcing for ascent overspreading the area. This,
   combined with a gradually strengthening low-level jet and related
   increase in hodograph size/curvature, may support a locally
   favorable corridor for storm intensification during the next couple
   of hours. The main uncertainties are the potential for a continued
   messy mode evolution and increasing nocturnal static
   stability/limited buoyancy. However, given the increasingly
   favorable wind profile (see ICT VWP), any embedded
   supercells/mesovorticies could pose a risk of damaging wind gusts, a
   couple of tornadoes, and sporadic severe hail. 

   The overall threat will be maximized with any NNW/SSE-oriented
   convective segments -- given southwesterly low/deep-layer shear
   sampled by regional VWP.

   ..Weinman.. 11/02/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   36559809 37359788 37589772 37769734 37749695 37539675
               36969683 36599715 36379760 36369803 36559809 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN