Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2429

   Mesoscale Discussion 2429
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1155 AM CST Mon Nov 02 2026

   Areas affected...central and northern OK into southeast KS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 021755Z - 021930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Relatively high uncertainty in the near term on whether
   robust/sustained storm development occurs during the next few hours.
   Trends will be closely monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Midday visible satellite/radar imagery shows a
   confluence band of deepening convection from near Chickasha, OK
   north-northeastward to near Wichita, KS.  Surface temperatures have
   warmed into the lower 70s with mid 60s deg F dewpoints.  Convective
   inhibition is gradually eroding but a relatively thick stratus layer
   will likely delay stronger heating/mixing through the early
   afternoon.  Current thinking is greater buoyancy will develop west
   of this convective band from southwest OK northwest into
   northwestern OK.  Nonetheless, the Wichita, KS WSR-88D VAD shows a
   gradual intensification of the wind profile and 0-1 km shear
   approaching 30 kt.  A shallow supercell or two may eventually form
   within this convective band.  The risk for severe associated with
   any of these storms remains unclear.

   ..Smith/Bentley.. 11/02/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   36299769 37299758 38159688 38209634 37889598 37159611
               34959715 34619774 34629810 34829831 36299769 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN