Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2425

   Mesoscale Discussion 2425
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0814 PM CST Sun Nov 01 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of northeastern New Mexico

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 699...

   Valid 020214Z - 020345Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 699
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The risk for severe wind gusts and gradually increasing
   tornado potential is expected across parts of northeastern New
   Mexico. A downstream watch is forthcoming.

   DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms is tracking eastward across
   parts of northeastern NM, with periodic increases in intensity and
   organization. Over the next hour or two, this activity will continue
   moving into a corridor of lower 60s F dewpoints -- contributing to
   1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE (per HRRR mesoanalysis). This relative
   increase in buoyancy, combined with a strengthening low-level
   jet/mass response (50 kt flow at 1 km AGL per FDX), should support a
   continued increase in severe-wind potential. Additionally, an
   enlarged/clockwise-curved low-level hodograph (around 250 m2/s2 0-1
   km SRH per FDX VWP) will also support increasing tornado potential
   with any embedded mesovorticies/supercells. 

   A downstream watch is forthcoming for this area, along with much of
   eastern NM into the TX/OK Panhandles.

   ..Weinman.. 11/02/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   35060462 35310464 35560458 35980429 36210419 36400391
               36470366 36410333 36180315 35570323 34960353 34760402
               34840440 35060462 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN