Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2424

   Mesoscale Discussion 2424
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0529 PM CST Sun Nov 01 2026

   Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico into West Texas and the western
   Oklahoma Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 012329Z - 020200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...An increasing risk for QLCS circulations and perhaps
   leading supercell tornadoes is expected early to mid evening. Severe
   wind gusts will also be possible as well. A watch is likely this
   evening with a tornado watch being possible.

   DISCUSSION...A linear band of low-topped convection continues
   eastward in the vicinity of Albuquerque. Strong mid-level ascent
   will continue to spread eastward this evening as a potent mid-level
   shortwave trough moves east. Lightning activity continues to
   increase with this linear band. With time, this convection will
   encounter upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints east of the terrain. This
   will occur coincident with a marked increase in 700 mb flow across
   the Southwest/southern High Plains regions. The expectation is for
   there to be an increase in QLCS circulation and perhaps leading
   supercell potential by around 03Z. Given the strong wind fields,
   even modest convection will be capable of severe wind gusts. A watch
   is likely this evening for parts of eastern New Mexico into the
   Texas Panhandle and South Plains. Some consideration for a tornado
   watch will be given.

   ..Wendt/Guyer.. 11/01/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   33090449 33140492 33700511 34560496 35820448 36450424
               36930272 36420209 35110204 34140279 33740317 33090449 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN