Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2423

   Mesoscale Discussion 2423
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0342 PM CST Sun Nov 01 2026

   Areas affected...portions of central and southern New Mexico

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 012142Z - 012315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...At least some increase in the overall severe risk is
   possible over the next couple of hours. The timing of watch issuance
   remains unclear.

   DISCUSSION...A broad area of precipitation has advanced eastward
   into eastern Arizona/western New Mexico through mid-afternoon in
   advance of a leading mid-level shortwave trough currently noted over
   western Arizona. Through 2140 UTC, convective activity within this
   band has been limited, with relatively minimal lightning activity
   noted across southeastern Arizona/northern Mexico over the past
   several hours. While clearer conditions have allowed surface
   temperatures to warm into the upper 60s/lower 70s F downstream
   across central/southern New Mexico, latest HRRR- and RAP-based
   objective analyses suggest that surface-based buoyancy remains
   fairly weak (generally in the 250-750 J/kg range) amid poor
   mid-level lapse rates. 

   Despite this relatively limited thermodynamic environment, strong
   deep-layer flow/shear (0-6 km bulk shear of 50-60+ kts) is more than
   sufficient for the development of organized convection. Latest
   forecast guidance continues to suggest that a broken/low-topped line
   of thunderstorms will emerge across central NM (and perhaps
   southwestern NM/southeastern AZ) in the 22-00z time frame, with the
   potential for damaging/severe wind gusts and a few tornadoes. This
   risk is expected to increase with time this evening, particularly as
   convection evolves eastward into eastern NM and the western TX
   Panhandle. Given the slow evolution of convection thus far, the
   timing of watch issuance remains unclear; although, a WW will
   probably be needed eventually for at least a portion of the
   Slight-risk area pending the development/intensification of
   convection.

   ..Chalmers/Gleason.. 11/01/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   34350801 35190747 36000654 36200603 36170552 35920518
               35370511 34250529 33220578 32800643 32610740 32690796
               33100824 33760828 34350801 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN