Mesoscale Discussion 2420 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026 Areas affected...parts of mid/upper Texas coastal areas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 301838Z - 302045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Shower and thunderstorm activity overspreading the mid to upper Texas coastal plain through 3-5 PM CDT may be accompanied by low probabilities for a brief/weak tornado, mainly near immediate coastal areas. DISCUSSION...Downstream of a weakening mid-level cyclonic vorticity center slowly migrating north-northeast of the lower Rio Grande Valley, a focused area of low-level forcing for ascent, supported by weak low-level convergence and warm advection, is overspreading middle Texas coastal areas near Palacios. Preceding a subsident, lower/mid-tropospheric dry slot, moist thermodynamic profiles characterized by weak conditional instability have been supporting a northeastward spreading area of mostly weak convection. However, this has included discrete cells with weak to occasionally modest embedded low-level updraft rotation offshore of coastal areas, where near-surface buoyancy is boosted by lower/mid 70s surface dew points, in the presence of small, but clockwise-curved, low-level hodographs. With the progression of the larger-scale mid-level troughing, this environment may develop closer to mid/upper Texas coastal areas between Palacios and Galveston over the next few hours accompanied by some risk for a brief, weak tornado. But, this activity appears unlikely to spread inland beyond immediate coastal areas, where a slightly cooler/drier boundary-layer will probably be maintained. ..Kerr/Smith.. 10/30/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP... LAT...LON 28629654 29099523 29169497 28679490 28319624 28629654 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
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