Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2419

   Mesoscale Discussion 2419
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0726 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

   Areas affected...portions of central into northeastern Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 300026Z - 300200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few instances of severe hail may accompany the stronger
   storms this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been intensifying within the axis of
   a strengthening low-level jet, where appreciable 925-850 mb WAA was
   also noted per 00Z mesoanalysis. Ahead of the strengthening cells,
   the TOP 00Z observed sounding depicted an appreciably
   enlarged/curved and elongated hodograph just south of a baroclinic
   boundary. 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates atop an adequately moist
   boundary layer are also contributing to over 2000 J/kg MUCAPE. Other
   than some ascent associated with the low-level WAA advection,
   overall forcing is weak. Still, given that MLCINH is not overly
   strong south of the baroclinic boundary, any storms that manage to
   intensify and sustain themselves may become supercellular,
   accompanied by mainly a severe hail threat (given anticipated
   boundary layer decoupling in the next few hours). At the moment, the
   severe threat is expected to remain on the isolated side given
   overall weak forcing for ascent.

   ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 10/30/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...DDC...

   LAT...LON   37869944 38399911 39039827 39379716 39519591 39349519
               38999491 38719507 38319596 37989679 37769764 37709820
               37649891 37869944 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN