Mesoscale Discussion 2417 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0708 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026 Areas affected...northwestern Wisconsin into far western Upper Michigan Concerning...Tornado Watch 698... Valid 290008Z - 290145Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 698 continues. SUMMARY...A couple instances of severe hail/wind or a tornado could still occur into early tonight, though the severe threat is expected to be more isolated from this point forward. DISCUSSION...A line of strong to occasionally severe storms has become established primarily north of a warm front, and will progress eastward with time. Across west-central WI, a strong storm cluster has become sustained over Buffalo County, WI. These storms continue to track along the eastern periphery of a surface-based buoyancy axis (characterized by 500 J/kg MLCAPE per the 00Z MPX observed sounding). However, these storms are also progressing into an intensifying (40-50 kt) LLJ, with the ARX VAD profiler showing a large/curved hodograph and over 500 m2/s2 of 0-3 km SRH. In the near-term, the ongoing storms will pose a threat for isolated severe gusts/hail, and a tornado may still occur, though confidence in this scenario is decreasing as these storms approach increasing MLCINH. Furthermore, nocturnal cooling should also contribute to a gradually waning severe threat. ..Squitieri.. 10/29/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 45278973 44359057 44239090 44219145 44269174 44529182 45709174 46259146 46779086 46798994 46578916 46048914 45278973 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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