Mesoscale Discussion 2415 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0525 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026 Areas affected...portions of eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin Concerning...Tornado Watch 698... Valid 282225Z - 282330Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 698 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for at least severe hail will continue over the next few hours. The best severe threat, including the chance for a tornado, will be with an ongoing supercell over southeastern MN. DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms, including those with a history of severe hail, continues ahead of a surface low. The majority of hail reports and MRMS mosaic MESH signatures have been with storms north of the warm front, where forcing for ascent has been maximized amid elevated buoyancy. Over the last couple of hours, thunderstorms have also intensified well ahead of the cold front, along a surface trough, including a supercell over southeastern MN. MRMS MESH indicates that 1-2 inch diameter hail may be falling from this storm. Furthermore, while this supercell is traversing the eastern edge of surface-based buoyancy and is merging into a linear cluster, it is also approaching the warm front, where effective SRH may be maximized (i.e. 300+ m2/s2 per latest mesoanalysis). As such, the best chance for severe hazards (including a tornado) would probably be associated with this storm in the near term. ..Squitieri.. 10/28/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 45759347 46079219 46209124 45979076 45299068 44659090 44409168 44409257 44489308 44739347 45759347 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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