Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2407

   Mesoscale Discussion 2407
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0310 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

   Areas affected...Central and Southern New Mexico into far West Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 242010Z - 242215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed by late
   this afternoon into early evening as convective development occurs
   and enters into the Slight Risk area. Damaging straight-line winds
   and hail are the primary threats, though a tornado or two cannot be
   ruled out.

   DISCUSSION...As forcing for ascent moves out of northern Mexico and
   into New Mexico/Texas, convective development is expected to occur
   and move into the Slight Risk Area. The 18Z EPZ sounding shows
   modest instability with a strongly-sheared, straight-line hodograph
   that will support a mix of supercell thunderstorms and
   upscale-growing line segments. 

   Southeasterly surface flow from south-central/southeast New Mexico
   into Far West Texas could support slower storm motions and a
   relatively greater potential for large hail and a tornado or two.
   However, the primary threat across the watch area will be for
   damaging straight-line winds and hail. The HRRR-RRFS time-lagged
   ensemble has upscale-growing line segments entering far West Texas
   by 23-00Z, while storms further north and east in New Mexico will
   support both a hail and wind threat. 

   A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed by early evening.

   ..Halbert/Mosier.. 10/24/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   31730703 32530730 33430748 34550735 35050695 35320653
               35240609 35060589 34510555 33440534 32790515 32600477
               32470441 32260394 31960376 31050394 30270416 29850438
               29730462 30130479 30580519 31180594 31730703 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN