Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2399

   Mesoscale Discussion 2399
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0155 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of east-central and northeast Arizona into
   far west-central New Mexico

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 693...

   Valid 221855Z - 222030Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 693 continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe risk is expected to increase across parts of
   east-central and northeast Arizona into far west-central New Mexico
   during the next few hours. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and a
   couple of tornadoes will all be possible.

   DISCUSSION...A north/south-oriented broken band of thunderstorms
   continues within a confluence zone extending across north-central
   AZ, with transient organization/embedded rotation. Over the next few
   hours, this activity, along with additional thunderstorms developing
   along the higher terrain, will spread northeastward into
   east-central/northeast AZ into far west-central NM. Here, cloud
   breaks are supporting diurnal heating/boundary-layer destabilization
   amid middle/upper 50s dewpoints. Around 70 kt of effective shear
   (sampled by the FGZ 18Z sounding) and backed low-level winds (and
   related enhancement to low-level shear/SRH) will be favorable for
   supercells and organized clusters capable of producing large hail,
   severe winds gusts, and a couple of tornadoes during the next few
   hours.

   ..Weinman.. 10/22/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

   LAT...LON   33311050 33771081 34191098 34591103 35311094 35881045
               35990993 35950941 35790905 35040877 33620871 33210891
               33060957 33311050 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN