Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2393

   Mesoscale Discussion 2393
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1021 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

   Areas affected...Central and Eastern Arizona

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 690...

   Valid 220321Z - 220515Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 690
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A threat for large hail, severe wind gusts and a tornado
   will be possible across parts of central and eastern Arizona late
   this evening into the overnight.

   DISCUSSION...Recent RAP/water vapor analysis has a 60 to 70 knot
   mid-level jet streak located over northwestern and north-central
   Arizona. Lift is likely maximized to the east of this feature across
   central and eastern Arizona, which is supporting the development of
   scattered thunderstorms. Over eastern Arizona, surface dewpoints are
   in the upper 50s F and the RAP has MLCAPE in the 750 to 1000 J/kg.
   As moisture advection continues overnight, instability is expected
   to be maintained. In addition, the WSR-88D VWP at Flagstaff shows a
   long straight hodograph with 55 to 65 knot of flow in the
   mid-levels. This wind profile will continue to support the potential
   for supercells with large hail over the next several hours. RAP
   forecast soundings to the east of Flagstaff have 0-3 km
   storm-relative helicity remaining in the 200 to 250 m2/s2 range into
   the early overnight period. This will support an isolated tornado
   threat with the stronger supercells.

   ..Broyles.. 10/22/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

   LAT...LON   35791148 36231103 36391056 36411004 36290960 36050921
               35400902 34250906 33690933 33610945 33420991 33431051
               33551117 33841175 33871179 34291195 35031179 35791148 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN