Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2392

   Mesoscale Discussion 2392
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0740 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

   Areas affected...Central California Coast

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 220040Z - 220145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated threat for a tornadoe and severe wind gusts is
   expected to develop across parts of the central California Coast
   this evening. The threat will likely be too marginal for watch
   issuance.

   DISCUSSION...An upper-level low is currently located about 250
   statute miles offshore from the central California Coast, with a 50
   to 70 knot mid-level jet extending from the base of the system into
   southern California. With the approach of the system, strong
   large-scale ascent is currently spreading over much of southern and
   central California. In response, a south-to-north band of
   precipitation with embedded thunderstorms is ongoing to the
   southwest of San Luis Obispo, and is just offshore. This feature
   will gradually move toward the coast and will move inland later this
   evening. WSR-88D VWP near San Luis Obispo has 0-3 km storm-relative
   helicity around 150 ms/s2. Short-term model forecasts suggest
   low-level shear will gradually increase over the next few hours
   supporting a potential for a brief tornado with rotating elements
   embedded in the band. If an embedded supercell can develop and move
   overland, an isolated threat for severe wind gusts would also be
   possible.

   ..Broyles/Smith.. 10/22/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LOX...MTR...

   LAT...LON   36082168 35932159 35312105 34802081 34492064 34342042
               34412008 34631997 35142014 35752050 36162085 36312104
               36402122 36362147 36252166 36082168 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH