Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2383

   Mesoscale Discussion 2383
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0300 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

   Areas affected...portions of southeastern Arizona and southwest New
   Mexico

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 192000Z - 192200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm cover is expected to increase later this
   afternoon with an isolated risk for hail or severe gusts. A WW is
   unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...As of 2000 UTC, visible imagery showed cumulus towers
   and initial thunderstorms deepening near the international border
   and across the higher terrain of southeastern AZ. Surface
   temperatures have steadily warmed this afternoon ahead of a weak
   upper trough. Surface dewpoints in the upper 50s with mid-level
   temperatures near -12 to -14 C are supporting around 500 J/kg of
   MLCAPE. Continue heating with steepening of lapse rate profiles
   should remove inhibition with additional thunderstorms expected to
   develop in and near the higher terrain this afternoon. While
   buoyancy will likely remain modest, effective shear of 30-40 kt
   could support some storm organization. Isolated, marginally severe
   hail and gusty outflow winds may occur with the stronger cells that
   develop and spread eastward from AZ into NM.

   Coverage should gradually increase this afternoon and into the
   evening hours as the upper trough moves overhead. Hi-res guidance
   shows this well, but with only sporadic more intense storms given
   the marginal buoyancy. This should keep the severe risk fairly
   isolated and a WW is unlikely.

   ..Lyons/Guyer.. 10/19/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...

   LAT...LON   31611172 32771122 33290974 33370892 33170818 32470750
               31910745 31440769 31080813 31030838 31191114 31611172 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN