Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2371

   Mesoscale Discussion 2371
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0847 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

   Areas affected...parts of southwestern into central Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 683...

   Valid 140147Z - 140345Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 683
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Strong to severe wind gusts could increase a bit further
   for a period this evening, into the 9-11 PM CDT time frame, in
   association with an organizing cluster of storms across southwestern
   into central Oklahoma.

   DISCUSSION...In the presence of favorable deep-layer shear,
   convection has grown upscale into at least a modestly organizing
   cluster, along the leading edge of a cold pool spreading northeast
   of the Texas South Plains/eastern Panhandle into southwestern
   Oklahoma.  Recent satellite imagery indicates continued cooling of
   cloud tops, and frequent lightning flash rates have been maintaining
   intensity. The environment ahead of this activity is slowly cooling
   and inhibition for boundary-layer parcels is increasing.  However,
   CAPE for potential updraft inflow may still be on the order of 2000
   J/kg for another hour or so, before diminishing toward the Greater
   Oklahoma City vicinity.  

   A couple of recent strong to severe wind gusts have been recorded in
   Hardeman and Harmon counties of northwest Texas/southwest Oklahoma. 
   With some further organization and intensification possible, strong
   to severe wind gusts could still increase through 02-04Z,
   near/northwest of the I-44 corridor toward central Oklahoma.

   ..Kerr.. 10/14/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35389906 35979846 35889755 35179796 34519887 34569927
               35389906 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN