Mesoscale Discussion 2368
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0402 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026
Areas affected...portions of the eastern Texas Panhandle to far
southwestern Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 132102Z - 132230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind and hail will increase into the
evening hours as storms increase in number and intensity. A few
instances of 75+ mph gusts or 2+ inch hail are possible, especially
for storms farther north into the TX Panhandle. A WW issuance is
possible, especially farther north once details regarding locations
of greater storm coverage become apparent.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm initiation is taking place across western
TX, both along and behind a dryline. Ahead of the dryline, upper 60s
F surface dewpoints and 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates are
contributing to 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Furthermore, 35-50 kts of
effective bulk shear are coinciding with this buoyancy, with the
stronger shear noted over the TX Panhandle, in closer proximity to
the stronger 500 mb southwesterly flow. The current thinking is that
storms will increase in number and severity across western TX, with
several multicells and transient supercells likely. Severe wind and
hail will be the main threats. The best chance for 75+ mph gusts and
2+ inch diameter hail will exist over the eastern TX Panhandle,
given stronger 500 mb flow overspreading better buoyancy (e.g. 2500
J/kg MLCAPE). A Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance may eventually be
needed, especially where the greater concentration of storms occur
(i.e. eastern TX Panhandle into northwestern TX).
..Squitieri/Smith.. 10/13/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
LAT...LON 29980498 32970278 35060144 36090055 35900010 35049991
33790009 32440066 31080149 30250209 29700251 29300284
29240308 29230349 29160401 29980498
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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