Issued at 500 AM MST Mon Oct 12 2026
000 WTPZ35 KNHC 121141 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Simon Intermediate Advisory Number 20A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202026 500 AM MST Mon Oct 12 2026 ...SIMON CRAWLING NORTHWEST JUST OFFSHORE OF MEXICO... ...DANGEROUS WINDS AND FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST... SUMMARY OF 500 AM MST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 106.4W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Playa Perula to El Roblito * Las Islas Marias A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of El Roblito to Bahia Tempehuaya A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in west-central Mexico should continue to monitor as changes to watches and warnings are possible later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM MST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Simon was located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 106.4 West. Simon is moving slowly toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h) and this general motion at a somewhat faster speed is expected to continue into early Tuesday. A gradual turn toward the northeast is forecast thereafter, and Simon is expected to move inland across west-central Mexico around midweek. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Simon is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional weakening is forecast, however Simon is expected to remain a hurricane through midweek. Rapid weakening is likely after Simon moves inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Simon can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely occuring in the Hurricane Warning area, with hurricane conditions spreading northward today. Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Tuesday night. RAINFALL: Simon is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across coastal portions of southwest and west-central Mexico with isolated additional amounts of 6 to 8 inches over portions of the state of Jalisco into the early portion of the week and the state of Sinaloa mainly Wednesday and Thursday. Isolated maximum storm totals of 30 inches are possible over portions of the states of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides or worsen any on-going flooding, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Simon, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected along the immediate coast near and to the east of where the center approaches land. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Simon will affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Papin
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