Hurricane Simon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20

000
FOPZ15 KNHC 120854
PWSEP5
                                                                    
HURRICANE SIMON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  20                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202026               
0900 UTC MON OCT 12 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SIMON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLAS MARIAS   34 11  30(41)   6(47)   1(48)   2(50)   1(51)   X(51)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  1  14(15)   4(19)   1(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)
ISLAS MARIAS   64  X   8( 8)   1( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)  30(43)   5(48)   X(48)
MAZATLAN       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  12(16)   2(18)   X(18)
MAZATLAN       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KATZ/BLAKE