Issued at 200 AM MST Mon Oct 12 2026
000 WTPZ45 KNHC 120854 TCDEP5 Hurricane Simon Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202026 200 AM MST Mon Oct 12 2026 Simon continues to show signs of weakening as the eye has become filled in, although infrared imagery shows that the central dense overcast has cooled since the previous advisory. There is a wide spread in intensity estimates, ranging from 73-127 kt. Since there has been an overall modest degradation to the cloud pattern, the current intensity is nudged downward to 100 kt. The initial wind radii were modified with the help of timely SAR pass. The cyclone is drifting off to the northwest as it is being steered by a distant mid-level ridge centered over the south-central United States. Simon is expected to continue moving slowly near the coast of Mexico for the next few days. However, there is still a higher than normal amount of uncertainty in the track, and some models show that Simon gets trapped in an area of light steering between the US ridge and one well southwest of Simon. Later, a trough from the northwest will approach the hurricane and force Simon to turn toward the northeast with increasing forward speed, though the timing of this turn is uncertain. The latest NHC forecast is just west of the previous advisory after considering some of the latest AI-based guidance. Weakening is expected to continue due to Simon's proximity to the mountainous terrain, as well as some easterly wind shear. However, the sea-surface temperatures that Simon will be moving across later this week are around 31-32 C, which could moderate the weakening trend, as well as the new track being slightly farther offshore. The current NHC intensity forecast is generally the same as the previous forecast with only a few adjustments. Simon is still expected to rapidly weakening once the cyclone makes landfall around 72 h. Key Messages: 1. Dangerous wind and storm surge impacts are likely along a portion of the west-central coast of Mexico, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Playa Perula to El Roblito. Residents should continue to shelter in a safe room to ride out the storm as the most significant hazards are ongoing. 2. Simon is expected to approach the coast of western Mexico later this week, where hurricane conditions are possible. A Hurricane Watch is in effect from El Roblito to Bahia Tempehuaya. 3. Heavy rainfall associated with Simon will impact portions of southwestern and west-central Mexico over the next few days. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. 4. Large swells will affect portions of the southwestern and west-central coasts of Mexico over the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 20.0N 106.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 20.6N 106.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 21.2N 107.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 21.8N 107.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 22.3N 107.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 14/1800Z 22.9N 107.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 23.4N 106.6W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 96H 16/0600Z 24.1N 105.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Katz/Blake
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