Mesoscale Discussion 2360
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0832 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026
Areas affected...far northeast South Carolina into central North
Carolina
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 111332Z - 111530Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...A few tornadoes may occur with some of the stronger
thunderstorms within a broader band of precipitation. Convective
trends are being monitored in the short term for the need of a
Tornado Watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms along a primary confluence band
from the extra-tropical remnants of Isaias continues to advance
eastward, with an uptick in storm intensity noted (via MRMS mosaic
radar imagery and NLDN lightning data). This band of storms is
approaching an axis of instability, characterized by over 1000 J/kg
MLCAPE, driven by mid 70 F surface dewpoints (shown via surface
observations). Mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep, as
indicated by regional 12Z observed soundings, reaching 6 C/km in
spots. Therefore, CAPE profiles will be tall and thin. Though
buoyancy should not be overall impressive, regional VADs and 12Z
observed soundings show appreciably curved low-level hodographs and
200 m2/s2 of effective SRH, with over 100 m2/s2 of this SRH
constrained in the lowest 500 m AGL.
This all being said, potential exists for some of the stronger
updrafts to produce tornadoes wherever such updrafts traverse
locally higher surface-based instability. Some of the latest runs of
high-resolution deterministic guidance suggests that central NC may
have the best chance at seeing a few tornadoes. At the moment,
effective bulk shear vectors are roughly parallel to the confluence
band. However, these vectors may exhibit a more perpendicular
component with time, which may elevate the severe threat. Convective
trends will be monitored for an increasingly cellular mode and
subsequent organization of supercells. Should this occur, a Tornado
Watch issuance may be needed.
..Squitieri/Smith.. 10/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...
LAT...LON 34037983 35267980 35737964 35997900 36137831 36057776
35917740 35607722 35217722 34747734 34327764 33917811
33797860 33787901 34037983
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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